President Donald J. Trump oversees Operation Epic Fury at Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, FL, March 1, 2026. (White House photo by Daniel Torok)

Since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran last Friday in Operation Epic Fury, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has gone from $65.20/barrel at the close on February 26, to $78.20 at the close on March 5, and prices are already at near $86/barrel in trading this morning. That’s an increase of over 31%, and doesn’t include rising prices as markets began to price in an attack earlier in the year. Since December 16, WTI crude oil prices are up over 55%. War is expensive. 

President Trump posted this morning that there will be no deals made with Iran, writing on Truth Social:

By alones @ Adobe Stock

There has been a lot of discussion in the financial news media over the decline of the dollar, and certainly America’s rapidly increasing debt and inflation have added risk to the currency, but the dollar’s decline since its peak at the start of 2025 doesn’t appear to be at crisis levels, just yet. Take a look at my chart below of the Bank of International Settlements’ Real Effective Exchange Rate Index (broad) for the dollar.

In the chart, you can see larger moves in the dollar compared to what has happened over the last year. The most significant is that which occurred from February 2002, bottoming out in July 2011.

A number of factors contributed to the long decline of the dollar from 2002, including somewhat the uptake in the use of the euro, but mostly loose monetary policy and aggressive nation-building policies by the Bush administration and the so-called “stimulus” by the Obama administration, both of which demanded massive federal spending and debt issuance to fund. After the financial crisis hooked the government on debt, subsequent Congresses seemed to abandon fiscal responsibility altogether.

The dollar isn’t dead yet, but if politicians and Federal Reserve officials are sincere in their stated commitments to a strong dollar, they will maintain reasonable interest rates and forgo drastic interventions in the economy and abroad.

By Jittapon @ Adobe Stock

With a big ice storm coming, natural gas buyers have driven prices up on worries that production facilities will be impacted by the severe weather. Prices for Henry Hub gas rose to $4.96/MMBTU yesterday, a jump of 62% compared to only two days prior. 

The intense storm predictions cover areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, as well as Pennsylvania, home to the Marcellus shale formation. 

Source: National Weather Service

In the map below, you can see America’s top 100 natural gas fields by reserves, with a significant portion positioned within the storm’s predicted track. 

Source: EIA

As America has reduced coal consumption, it has rapidly increased natural gas consumption. Disruptions to production now will mean greater uncertainty for energy consumers, both for heating and power generation. 

Be sure your family is prepared for the storm. 

From August 15, 1971, the day President Nixon officially took America off the gold standard (the system had been breaking down for years beforehand) to September 17, 2007, the day before the Ben Bernanke-led Federal Reserve began what would be an unprecedented economic intervention in the face of the Financial Crisis, the mean interest rate of 3-month T-bills was 6.08%. For the 18 years following Bernanke’s intrusion on markets, it’s been 1.39%.

For decades, I have called the 90-day T-bill the investor’s “North Star.” The T-bill is the risk-free rate of return you can use to chart your course among other investments. The “Real North Star” is the risk-free rate of return with inflation taken out. It’s a measure of the growth or decline in Americans’ purchasing power.

During the pre-Bernanke era, the yields on T-bills rarely fell below the rate of core CPI inflation, and then only for brief periods. Since Bernanke’s response to the Financial Crisis, yields on T-bills have spent more time below the rate of core inflation than above.

Low rates are harmful for savers. When the Fed pushes short rates below 4%, investors should be wary. Here’s how I explained it in 2003:

The 90-day T-bill is often referred to as the risk-free rate of return. Here we are looking at ultimate safety. In retirement, I advise you to draw no more than 4%. When T-bills are 4%, and ideally 4% plus the current inflation rate, you can invest defensively with ultimate safety and a satisfactory, if not munificent, return. When the T-bill rate is below 4%, you cannot make your draw. As such, you are knocked out of the box with the ultimate safety investment. That’s a big deal, no way around it. Aggressive investors and know-it-alls eschew T-bills as dull and boring and certain to produce modest results. Well, all of that is true, but you know what? So what? You can win the day with (1) no credit risk, (2) no interest rate-cycle risk, (3) no stock market risk. You’ll sleep well at night. No, you won’t get rich on your investments, but when you already have your nest egg, you just may not need to get a whole lot richer. With the North Star today at 1.1%, red lights are flashing in a really big way.

The recent release of minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed that Federal Reserve officials are internally debating the efficacy of future interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve should be cautious about lowering rates further than it already has. The Real North Star is still in positive territory, but every cut brings investors closer to losing purchasing power on the risk-free rate. The last thing Americans need after years of Bidenflation is further erosion of their purchasing power.

Originally posted May 28, 2025.

Ray Kurzweil has been a leading developer of artificial intelligence for 61 years, longer than any other living human. I am reading his most recent book, The Singularity is Nearer: When We Merge with AI. The implications of artificial intelligence are immense, and Kurzweil is viewing the technology from the forefront in his position as Principal Researcher and AI Visionary at Google. The book’s website explains: