Attempting to time the market could be the most popular mistake among market participants. Here’s what I wrote about market timing back in January 1997:

Panic!…

History has been made. Since the exact summer Dow low of 5346.55, the Dow has soared an amazing 21.9%. Never in stock market history has the Dow added 1,000 points so fast. As a cap to the monster four-month surge, the Dow Jones News Service headlined a lead story with, “November Point Gain Was Largest Ever for the Dow.” To anyone who was foolish enough to sell stocks in front of this tidal wave, the bailout goes down, in terms of points, as the single worst market-timing event in history.

How have you fared? With a history-making, four-month supercharged gain under our belts, now is the right time to take a little investor inventory. Are you on board with my serious long-term battle plan? Or are you running from rock to rock like most investors, dodging bullets as in an old Tom Mix western? Well, you needn’t be bushwhacked by savage market swings.

Even professionals can get market timing wrong. Later in the same piece, I wrote:

[H]ere is a tragic example of market timing at its bankrupt worst. At the end of 1995 and the opening days of 1996, the fund manager for the biggest U.S. equity fund made a massive timing/sector bet by switching the fund’s biggest positions into long bonds instead of equities. In effect, he created a balanced fund for mostly unknowing investors who had largely invested in Magellan Fund as a way to participate in equities through smart stock picking. Well, the mammoth timing/sector bet was a disaster, and the fund manager is now history. And Magellan, the worst performer among the big 10 equity funds year to date, has beaten not one of its nine competitors.

Successful investing is primarily all about compounding, time, and patience. It is more about intuition and less about anything else. And it is more about diversification and less about selection. It is all about doing less and not more.

Below, you can watch Riders of the Purple Sage, filmed in 1925, starring Tom Mix, Beatrice Burnham, Arthur Morrison, Warner Oland, and Wilfred Lucas. The film, directed by Lynn Reynolds, was based on the novel of the same name by Zane Grey, published in 1912 by Harper & Brothers.

Hurricane Lee has strengthened to a Category 5 storm and is barreling through the Atlantic on course to hit America’s East Coast. Right behind Lee is Tropical Storm Margot, which is also expected to reach hurricane levels. First Coast News reports:

It’s very active across the Atlantic basin, but thankfully there are no local threats in Jacksonville within the next week. Remember to stay updated this time of year as the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is approaching.

Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the Atlantic, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by Saturday. We are watching it closely as models suggest it could head towards the Caribbean, or travel just north of the islands and near the Bahamas by mid-next week. It is too early to tell how this could impact the East Coast of the United States, but it is something to watch closely. Guidance continues to be strong on the development of this area as it moves west this week.

Hurricane Florence was said to be a “guaranteed fish storm” in its early beginnings in 2018, but the forecast changed and it ended up making a direct impact on the Carolina Coast. Not that this current system we’re watching won’t re-curve, but Florence does serve as a reminder to not write these tropical waves off too soon. Stay tuned for updates.

There are two other areas we’re monitoring as well, but do not pose a concern to us at this point. Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is located several hundred miles north of the Azores and is forecast to move quickly southeastward towards warmer waters east of the Azores. Another strong tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of West Africa on Tuesday and head toward the Cape Verde Islands.

It’s already been a very active season. Normally by now, we’d only have 7 named storms. Instead, we’ve already had 11 (12 if you include the one unnamed subtropical storm in January), which is more typical for October 2.

Read more here.

In August 2009 I wrote:

I do not believe in cost-push inflation. By example, union pressure to increase wages is not an inflationary event. An economy will adjust for higher wages without a general increase in the level of prices across the economy. Inflation is strictly a monetary event: i.e., too much money chasing too few goods. Milton Friedman was the dean of the monetary inflation fraternity. Whenever you come across an article on M.F., be certain to read with care as you will improve your understanding of a lot of things.

Writing for Real Clear Markets, John Tamny echoes my sentiments, and those of Milton Friedman, that inflation is a monetary event, writing:

To witness the search for actual inflation (a decline in the monetary unit) among economists and pundits is like watching a hunt for green M&Ms in a bowl full of yellow ones. It’s futile.

Which is something to keep in mind with “inflation” well in mind. Searches for it will be fruitless, misleading, or both, so long as the problem (inflation) is improperly defined. And improperly defined it is.

Consider the focus on wages at the moment. Supposedly rising wages are evidence of inflation. Don’t you get it? If people have more money to spend, spend it they will on the way to rising prices. Except that it’s not as simple as economists and their lickspittle media enablers make it out to be.

If employees have higher wages, logic dictates that someone is paying those higher wages. It’s not as though the funds directed to workers are pulled from another planet, or picked off of a tree on which they grow. For an employee to receive more pay is only mathematically possible insofar as the employer has fewer dollars. In other words, even if you believe that rising wages cause higher prices born of “demand,” you can’t ignore that someone, somewhere has reduced “demand” born of funding those higher wages.

Prices are no different. If chicken breasts are pricey, and they seemingly are at the moment, life is about tradeoffs. If chicken breasts are enjoying increasingly sizable wallet share, logic dictates that some other market good (perhaps popsicles) is being left behind at the grocery store as a vivification of the truth about tradeoffs.

Back to wages, logic dictates that they would rise the most amid a lack of inflation. Which is kind of a statement of the obvious. Compensation doesn’t just happen any more than jobs are “created” or just “happen.” Jobs are an obvious consequence of investment in new businesses and/or new ideas altogether. And when investors invest, they’re plainly pursuing future returns in terms of a monetary unit, in our case the dollar.

From the above it’s no reach to conclude that investment would shrink amid periods of currency devaluation. Put more bluntly, inflation is anti-investment. Really, why would those with title to money put it to work in search of returns coming back in dollars that are shrinking in value? Why indeed.

Still, lost-in-the-stone-age economists and the pundits who hang on their every word believe higher wages cause inflation. They don’t. To say that higher wages or higher prices cause inflation is like saying upset stomachs cause chocolate. Causation is plainly being reversed.

Read that last paragraph again. Then watch Milton Friedman’s Money and Inflation talk given at the University of San Diego in 1978 below.

In a recent interview with John Stossel, Gov. Ron DeSantis explained that some wolves come dressed in sheep’s clothing, so you don’t see them until it’s too late. Others are obvious. DeSantis says the problems with the central authority granted by central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are obvious. In his words, “This is a wolf coming as a wolf.” Stossel reports:

President Joe Biden and the media are excited about something new: a Central Bank Digital Currency, or CBDC. It’s a currency like Bitcoin, except controlled by the federal government.

Not everyone is a fan.

“Sometimes government does things that may appear to be benevolent but really are kind of like a wolf in sheep’s clothing,” says Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in my new video. “This is a wolf coming as a wolf.”

For months, I’ve tried to get DeSantis to sit down for an interview. What finally got him to agree was government’s plan for digital money.

“If you don’t trust central authority,” DeSantis says, “then you should see this immediately as something that is very problematic.”

Of course, a lot of people do trust central authority. The Biden administration says a CBDC will “protect consumers, investors … and the environment.”

“That last one’s a tell,” laughs DeSantis, “they would impose ideology certain criteria … ‘You’re filling up too much (with gas). Wait a minute — climate change. You can’t be doing that! You bought another firearm? No, no, no.'”

Canada’s government used its banking system to control people when truckers protested vaccine rules. The government blocked their bank accounts. That stopped the protests.

DeSantis is so upset about the Fed’s and Biden’s plan for a CBDC he just got Florida’s legislature to ban its use in their state.

I ask, “This will be a national issue. Why is it the business of a governor?”

“This is part of our role,” he responds, citing federalism. “There’s a back and forth between the federal government and the states. We’re pushing back about things we don’t think are good.”

DeSantis questions the CBDC’s legality. “The Federal Reserve has come out and said, We would only do it after ‘consulting with the legislative and executive branches. Ideally, we’d get specific congressional authorization.’ Wait a minute! It’s not ideal that you get Congress. That’s what the Constitution requires!”

Of course, the media is enthusiastic about a government-controlled CBDC.

CNBC says it will be “as trusted as cash, as convenient as a payment app, yet also benefit from the same blockchain technology which underpins cryptocurrencies.”

“When I started talking about some of the dangers from privacy,” DeSantis tells me, “the corporate press … all of a sudden (said) ‘DeSantis is trying to promote conspiracy theories!'” MSNBC even called it “unhinged conspiracy theory.”

DeSantis wonders why the media even care. “Is it really because they are really that invested in cross-border transactions?” he asks. “Of course not. It’s because this is something that could help them advance their ideology of having more central authority … over the average American.”

I push him, “America’s going to fall behind!” The Wall Street Journal says America’s financial system is outdated and CBDCs will modernize it.

“Oh, please,” DeSantis sneers. “They want to move to a cashless society, which would basically mean the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department would have supervisory jurisdiction over all of your transactions.”

“Cash is independence,” adds DeSantis. “You have the cash in your wallet … It’s not dependent on somebody else.”

In other words, cash is private. So is cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin. People can buy gas and guns without using government money at all.

Advocates of government digital money don’t like that.

I was recently asked some questions about Vanguard’s Wellesley Income Fund by a business associate. Below is a short summary of the questions and my answers. 

The first question was, “Who manages Wellesley Income Fund?”

The answer is Wellington Management Company, which I have had dealings with from my earliest days in the industry at Model Roland & Co. on Federal St. in Boston, where I began work in August of 1971. Wellington was founded in 1928 in Boston, and is one of America’s oldest institutional money managers. The two Wellington managers currently tasked with managing the Wellesley Income Fund are Loren L. Moran, who has been with the fund for six years, and Matthew C. Hand, who has worked on Wellesley for two years. 

The second question about the Wellesley Fund was about how the fund is organized and diversified.

The fund is organized into bond and stock components, with 60%-65% of the fund allocated to bonds, and 35%-40% allocated to stocks. Wellington invests the bond component in “short-, intermediate, and long-term investment-grade corporate bonds, while seeking to maintain an aggregate intermediate duration.” The stock component is invested in “large-company value stocks with above-average dividends and potential for income growth.” The portfolio usually holds fewer than 100 stocks.

The final question from my associate was about Morningstar’s rating for the Wellesley Income Fund.

Morningstar has assigned a rating of five stars to the Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund. That’s the highest rating Morningstar assigns to mutual funds. 

 

At the Cato Institute, Norbert Michel and Nicholas Anthony explain that a “CBDC (central bank digital currency) is not ‘just another form of money,’ as some of its supporters have claimed.” No other form of money gives governments the ability to control what you spend your money on, how much you spend, or even to take money back out of your account at a moment’s notice. Michel and Anthony slam the recent defense of CBDCs by Paul Krugman. They write:

This April Forbes column describes why central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are a fundamental issue related to Americans’ freedom and much bigger than just politics. It argues that New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, famous for being wrong about the Internet, was wrong for claiming presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis was merely playing politics with CBDCs.

Nonetheless, Krugman has doubled down. As Crowdfund Insider explains, now he’s taken to Twitter to re‐​promote his original opinion piece and to liken DeSantis’s warnings about CBDCs to former presidential candidate Rick Santorum’s fight against the National Weather Service.

Contrary to Krugman’s framing, DeSantis’s claims about the risks of CBDCs have merit. As the Forbes piece demonstrated, proponents of CBDCs, even some government officials who would be in charge of implementing CBDCs, have openly discussed using CBDCs for exactly the purposes DeSantis claimed. (Nick and I have a longer list here.)

A CBDC is not “just another form of money,” as some of its supporters have claimed. A fully implemented CBDC is a complete government takeover of money and payments. As the experience in China and Nigeria have shown, the introduction of a CBDC comes with the removal of people’s freedom to choose their methods of payment.

CBDCs mark a fundamental threat to both economic and political freedom. But it should surprise no one that Krugman is wrong on this issue.

 

 

I wrote in the October 2015 issue of Intelligence Report:

As you know, I do not check the prices of my investments daily, weekly, or even monthly. I do an annual checkup only at tax time. When I make a significant investment, I have no intention of liquidation anytime soon. I am in for the long haul. Thus, short- or even medium-term volatility is of zero concern to me, beyond keeping an eye out for a name on my watch list that may have taken a temporary beating due to no particular fault of its own. So, then, successful investing is a mindset based upon a master plan that allows an investor to find comfort through thick or thin.

I designed the Retirement Compounders (RCs) using the dividend and interest model explained in Ben Graham’s books while still a student at Babson College. The RCs went on to form the basis of my two decades long Young’s World Money Forecast and Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report. Using my research, I spoke around the country at investment management conferences. In 1978, in Newport, RI, I started what became the award-winning Richard C. Young & Co. Ltd. (Barron’s (2012-2022) and CNBC (2019-2022) Disclosure). My son Matt has now run our family business for nearly three decades, and Debbie’s and my daughter, Becky, is CFO.  

Our son-in-law, E.J. Smith, has become known in the investment community as Your Survival Guy and has staked out a position as our face with investing families and small business organizations around America. Debbie and I still research and write seven days a week for our clients and multiple websites, and this June, as I headed above, we will be concentrating on the dividends and interest-centric Retirement Compounders.    

Young Research’s Retirement Compounders^® Investment Program

When we developed Young Research’s Retirement Compounders® investment program, our goal was to help investors like you achieve investment success especially during bad times. Our strategy was to accept underperformance during speculative market runs, with the potential trade-off of better results during down markets.

The idea was never to beat the market over time or on a consistent basis. Rather, we fully expected the Retirement Compounders^® program (both price risk and business risk) to trail the major market averages.

Why would we design a program to underperform?

The ugly reality of investing that nobody likes to talk about is that the average equity investor vastly underperforms the market and the funds he invests in. This is true even for investors who own market-beating mutual funds.

Dalbar, an investment analytics firm, is the authority here. Dalbar’s data shows that the average equity investor regularly underperforms the S&P 500 by 3-5% over long periods of time.

Volatility and Emotionalism

High volatility and emotionalism are to blame. When stock market volatility rises, many investors panic and sell near the lows, only to add to their stock positions once again in the dying days of a bull market.

Young Research’s Retirement Compounders^® program is comprised of dividend paying common stocks selected from the over 40,000 global publicly traded companies. The Retirement Compounders^® program favors high dividend payers, those with a history of dividend payments, and companies with a long record of consecutive dividend increases.

Some of the companies included in Young Research’s Retirement Compounders^® program have paid a dividend every year for over a century. Others can boast a more than five decade record of annual dividend increases. The combination of high dividend payments today and dividend growth tomorrow can help you become a more confident, comfortable, successful long-term investor.

Retirement Compounders^® Investment Program Helps You Stay the Course

Young Research’s Retirement Compounders® seeks to help investors avoid the emotionally charged investment decisions that can sabotage returns. Investing in high-quality businesses with long records of regular dividend payments may  offer the comfort necessary to stay the course when financial and economic stress arise.

For investors looking to pass on the burden of daily portfolio management, Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. crafts dividend-focused common stock portfolios that are based on Young Research’s Retirement Compounders^® program. You can sign up for Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd.’s monthly client letter (free, even for non-clients) here.

With air travel once again growing rapidly, air freight companies are looking to avoid clogged major airports by flying into smaller regional airports. Paul Berger reports for The Wall Street Journal:

Freight forwarders are increasingly looking to fly around America’s congested air hubs.

A combination of shifting manufacturing supply chains and bottlenecks at big airports is leading the freight middlemen to hire their own aircraft and seek alternative gateways, establishing operations that are boosting business at smaller, regional sites like Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport in South Carolina and Chicago Rockford International Airport. 

Forwarders say they can move cargo through the smaller airports more quickly, cheaply and reliably than they can through the big gateways that handle millions of tons of freight a year. 

To do so, the logistics operators are departing from their traditional strategy of booking space in the bellies of passenger planes or on scheduled freighters, and instead chartering aircraft to run routes through alternate sites, often on schedules that suit their customers. In some cases they bring in their own equipment and take control of loading and unloading operations that are usually managed by third-party ground handlers at major airports. 

Dave Edwards, the chief executive at Greenville-Spartanburg, said just over a decade ago his airport had no international air cargo operations. It spent about $1.5 million to install its own cargo-handling equipment and lured German luxury car maker BMW AG , which has a large plant nearby, as a first customer. 

BMW today accounts for about a quarter of Greenville-Spartanburg’s roughly 15 international cargo flights a week. Mr. Edwards said other companies such as Volvo Car AB, Volkswagen AG and Siemens AG , which also have plants within trucking distance, are regular users of the airport.

“The efficiency of the operation has really caught the attention of many freight forwarders, and some of the manufacturers as well who like the fact the product is coming into an airport nearby,” Mr. Edwards said.

Air cargo volumes fell through most of last year as manufacturers and retailers pulled back on orders because of slowing consumer spending. Falling freight demand doesn’t appear to be dampening enthusiasm for secondary hubs, said consultant Doug Bañez, managing director at Charlotte, N.C.-based Hubpoint Strategic Advisors.

Supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic led many companies “to consider alternatives and they learned that these alternatives work,” Mr. Bañez said.

Profits are rising at GE as demand for its jet engines and power equipment remain strong. The company’s CEO Larry Culp, has planned a number of spinoffs to what was once America’s most renowned conglomerate. Thomas Gryta reports in The Wall Street Journal:

General Electric Co. GE 0.52%increase; green up pointing triangle reported strong demand for its jet engines and power equipment in the fourth quarter, lifting the manufacturer to a quarterly profit and higher revenue than a year ago.

The final quarter of the year is typically the strongest for the company, which generated cash flow of $4.3 billion in the period, bringing its total to $4.8 billion for the year. The latest results include GE HealthCare Technologies Inc., GEHC 0.52%increase; green up pointing triangle which it spun off in early January.

The company had a fourth-quarter profit of $2.1 billion on a 7% increase in total revenue to $21.8 billion. The earnings results topped Wall Street’s expectations. GE forecast higher revenue for 2023 but set a cash flow target for the year below some expectations after the healthcare spinoff. GE shares ended Tuesday up 1.2% at $80.70.

Inflation continues to be a challenge across the businesses, Chief Executive Larry Culp said in an interview, and isn’t expected to go away in 2023. Pricing has caught up to cost increases, he said, and will be about neutral for the year. “That is more of a function of us doing a better job of combating it than inflation going away,” he said.

The company is laying off about 2,000 workers from its onshore wind business, it has previously said, but is hiring elsewhere in the company. The aerospace division cut 25% of its workforce in 2020 as pandemic lockdowns hit the aviation industry but is now searching for workers as growth increases.

“If you know any welders or machinists, send them my way,” said Mr. Culp, who is also the CEO of the aerospace division.

GE began the year by splitting off its healthcare unit, completing a key step in the breakup of the American icon which is now focused on GE Aerospace, its jet engine division, and a portfolio of energy businesses that will become a separate company called GE Vernova in 2024.

GE projected free cash flow between $3.4 billion to $4.2 billion for 2023, an estimate that may adjust over the year. In the middle of 2022, GE cut its projections by about $1 billion from the $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion it had previously predicted.

The company expects operating profit of $5.3 billion to $5.7 billion for GE Aerospace for the year and an operating loss of $600 million to $200 million for GE Vernova.

The spinoffs are designed to simplify GE’s operations and make the assets more attractive to investors. Mr. Culp has said the breakup will bring more focus and accountability to the business he has revamped since 2018.