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The Singularity Is Nearer: Ray Kurzweil

May 28, 2025 By Richard Young

Ray Kurzweil has been a leading developer of artificial intelligence for 61 years, longer than any other living human. I am reading his most recent book, The Singularity is Nearer: When We Merge with AI. The implications of artificial intelligence are immense, and Kurzweil is viewing the technology from the forefront in his position as Principal Researcher and AI Visionary at Google. The book’s website explains:

The world’s most renowned oracle of technological change shows how human minds will merge with AI within the next two decades and what this momentous transformation will mean for us all.

One of the greatest inventors of our time, futurist Ray Kurzweil published his landmark book The Singularity Is Near in 2005 and dozens of his predictions about technological advancements have come true—with concepts like AI, intelligent machines, and biotechnology now widely familiar to the public.

In this visionary and fundamentally optimistic new book, Kurzweil brings a fresh perspective to advances toward the Singularity. Kurzweil predicts that by the end of this decade, AI will exceed human levels of intelligence and by 2045, we’ll be able to enhance our intelligence a millionfold, expanding our consciousness in ways we can barely imagine by connecting our brains directly to the cloud. Human life will be changed forever once we live free from the limits of biology—and this eventuality is drawing ever nearer.

Topics touched on by Kurzweil in the book are:

  • Rebuilding the world, atom by atom with devices like nanobots
  • Radical life extension beyond the current age limit of 120
  • Reinventing intelligence by connecting our brains to the cloud
  • How exponential technologies are propelling innovation and improving all aspects of our well-being
  • The growth of renewable energy and 3D printing, which can be applied to everything from clothes to building materials to growing human organs
  • Addressing potential perils of biotechnology, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence
  • AI’s impact employment and human safety
  • “After Life” technology to reanimate those who have passed away through a combination of data and DNA
  • How this next stage of humanity’s evolution can and will transform life on earth profoundly for the better

Kurzweil discusses his vision of AI in the video below:

Filed Under: Feature

What Is Gold Telling Investors? And the Dow 30?

April 17, 2025 By Richard Young

By saritwat @ Adobe Stock

Take a good look at my chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow 30) and the price of gold. You can see gold hitting new highs at $3,342/troy ounce, while the DJIA Index has fallen to 39,669 points, or a drop of about 11.9% since peaking on December 4, 2024. 

Gold is in a secular bull market, and it will remain in a secular bull market until the world’s central banks stop printing excessive amounts of money and governments stop issuing excessive amounts of debt. One indicator of prospective returns in gold is the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the price of gold. When the ratio is falling, gold is outperforming the Dow. Over the last 124 years, as portrayed in the chart below, there have been three completed secular bull markets in gold versus the Dow. The current bull market is the fourth.

 

In each of the previous bull markets, the ratio of the Dow to gold dropped below six. Today, the Dow is trading at 12X gold. How much further it will fall is anyone’s guess. Don’t put yourself in the prediction business. Understand, though, that as the ratio falls, the relative affordability of the Dow is rising. 

Can you own too much gold? For most investors, 10% is probably the max. You buy gold as an insurance policy. Gold offers protection against inflation, currency debasement, and political and geopolitical turmoil. I buy gold and hope it goes down, because when gold is falling, it is often true that everything else in your portfolio is rising. 

The Dow 30 today consists of these companies:

Symbol Company Yield %

AMZN

Amazon.com Inc 0

AXP

American Express Co 1.30

AMGN

Amgen Inc 3.37

AAPL

Apple Inc 0.51

BA

Boeing Co 0.00

CAT

Caterpillar Inc 1.94

CSCO

Cisco Systems Inc 2.94

CVX

Chevron Corp 5.05

GS

Goldman Sachs Group Inc 2.40

HD

Home Depot Inc 2.66

HON

Honeywell International Inc 2.34

IBM

International Business Machines Corp 2.80

JNJ

Johnson & Johnson 3.38

KO

Coca-Cola Co 2.85

JPM

JPMorgan Chase & Co 2.44

MCD

McDonald’s Corp 2.29

MMM

3M Co 2.24

MRK

Merck & Co Inc 4.24

MSFT

Microsoft Corp 0.89

NKE

Nike Inc 2.99

PG

Procter & Gamble Co 2.54

SHW

Sherwin-Williams Co 0.95

TRV

Travelers Companies Inc 1.74

UNH

UnitedHealth Group Inc 1.44

CRM

Salesforce Inc 0.67

NVDA

NVIDIA Corp 0.04

VZ

Verizon Communications Inc 6.21

V

Visa Inc 0.71

WMT

Walmart Inc 1.03

DIS

Walt Disney Co 1.21

If you follow the Dogs of the Dow strategy, you’ll quickly notice a few yields over 4%, with a few more in the 3% range. Historically, though, the yield on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still low at 1.84% today.

What are gold and the Dow telling investors today? Diversity can benefit a portfolio. I have always recommended diversification and patience built on a foundation of value and compound interest.

Click here to find your port in a storm. 

Filed Under: Dow Stocks, Gold

The Power of Gold

March 14, 2025 By Richard Young

By monsitj @ Adobe Stock

As the purchasing power of the American dollar has declined steadily since gold convertibility ended in 1971, the purchasing power of an ounce of gold is strong. The spot price of gold closed at an all-time high of $2,989 yesterday and crossed over $3,000 an ounce in trading today. 

The purchasing power of gold is also near record highs, though it hasn’t quite exceeded its peak during the hyperinflation of the 1980s. 

Since 1913, the year the Federal Reserve was created, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen by 96%. The purchasing power of a single ounce of gold over that same time period has more than doubled. That is no coincidence. Gold is a store of value—a wealth preservation vehicle. Gold won’t make you rich, but it also won’t make you poor. Gold is a currency. It can’t go bankrupt or lose its value because of poor management, accounting fraud, world war, or hyperinflation. Investors who truly understand gold recognize that gold should be counted in ounces, not in dollars. Because while the dollar value of gold may fluctuate from year to year, it will be worth many times its current value during the next generation and in those that follow.

Markets are stormy. Find your port in the storm by clicking here to subscribe to the Young’s World Money Forecast email alert. 

Filed Under: Gold

Good as Gold: Will Ron Paul Audit the Fed?

February 12, 2025 By Richard Young

Generated with Grok 2 via X.com

The price of gold has reached new highs. In 2017 I wrote to subscribers:

Since 1913, the year the Federal Reserve was created, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen 96%. The purchasing power of a single ounce of gold over that same time period has more than doubled. That is no coincidence. Gold is a store of value—a wealth preservation vehicle. Gold won’t make you rich, but it also won’t make you poor. Gold is a currency. It can’t go bankrupt, lose its value because of poor management, accounting fraud, world war, or hyper-inflation. Investors who truly understand gold recognize that gold should be counted in ounces, not in dollars. Because while the dollar value of gold may fluctuate from year-to-year, it will be worth many times its current value during the next generation and in those that follow.

As you can see on my chart below, gold is now at all time highs of over $2,900/ounce.

Demand for gold has caused inventory spikes at Comex warehouses:

But annual gold production growth in 2024 was only 1.5%, the same as it has been on a compound annual growth basis since 1969.

Demand for gold seems to be increasing, and production of gold has not been able to grow rapidly for some time and even sits today at slightly less than that of 2018. Silver production, too, has fallen, though the dynamics of that metal are somewhat different.

Another piece I wrote back in 2010 seems relevant today as DOGE rips into the operations of the bloated federal government and finds waste, fraud, and abuse throughout. I wrote:

The Great Money Flood

Inflation is a disease. After WWI, hyperinflation—when prices sometimes doubled and more than doubled from one day to the next—prepared the ground for Communism in Russia and Nazism in Germany. The story is told in Milton and Rose Friedman’s Free to Choose. As the Friedmans correctly point out, no government is willing to accept responsibility for producing inflation. The Friedmans present readers five simple truths that embody most of what we know about inflation. First, inflation is a monetary phenomenon arising from a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in the output. Second, government determines or can determine the quantity of money. Third, there is only one cure for inflation: a slower increase in the quantity of money. Fourth, it takes time, measured in years not months, for inflation to develop; it takes time for inflation to be cured. Fifth, unpleasant side effects of the cure are unavoidable

The Problem Starts With Government

Milton and Rose point the bony finger of blame at government. I have agreed with the Friedmans for decades. In 1978, I began Young’s World Money Forecast to write about inflation and inflation’s cousin: gold and currency debasement. In 1987, I wrote a book, Young’s Financial Armadillo Strategy, to further the discussion of inflation, gold and currency debasement in terms of investment portfolios. In the years since, I have found no reason to change or adapt my original approach to portfolio management based on the basic Friedman conclusions on government and inflation.

Government is where the problems start. And the bigger, more intrusive the central (as opposed to state) government becomes, the greater my concern for your and my welfare in both financial and personal security terms. An ongoing study and appraisal of central government is the only place to begin analysis of the climate for investing, business in general, and certainly your family’s personal security. An incorrect appraisal of the intentions of those charged with governing our country makes proper action regarding financial and personal security impossible. It’s just that simple.

There’s talk of putting former Congressman Dr. Ron Paul in charge of an audit of the Federal Reserve. That would be a great start in healing America’s broken monetary and fiscal systems. I’ll be watching, and writing about the developments surrounding gold, Ron Paul, the Fed, and your dollar. Click here to subscribe to Young’s World Money Forecast, your port in a storm.

Filed Under: Gold

Over Three Decades of Consistency

January 6, 2025 By Richard Young

Riding the yield curve and compounding decades of dividends. Practicing the faith of Ben Graham’s margin of safety, and honoring the Prudent Man Rule. I still write daily. You’ll find me on our family websites, so don’t miss out.

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Filed Under: Investing Strategies

The Story of Roger Babson and the Great Depression

November 30, 2024 By Richard Young

Roger Babson, entrepreneur und business theorist from Massachusetts, between 1905 and 1945. Photo by Harris & Ewing, courtesy of the Library of Congress.

After successfully predicting the crash that led to the Great Depression, Roger Babson was vilified as though he were its cause. At Doug Casey’s International Man, Jeff Thomas explains the history of Roger Babson, founder of Babson College, which I attended.

“[A] crash is coming, and it may be terrific. …. The vicious circle will get in full swing and the result will be a serious business depression. There may be a stampede for selling which will exceed anything that the Stock Exchange has ever witnessed. Wise are those investors who now get out of debt.”

The above words could easily have been stated by me or another of the (very) few others who currently predict the coming of crashes in the markets.

But they were not. The statements above were made by investor Roger Babson at a speech at the Annual Business Conference in Massachusetts on 5th September, 1929.

Mr. Babson’s prediction was not a sudden one. In fact, he had been making the same prediction for the previous two years, although he, in September of 1929, felt the crash was much closer.

News of his speech reached Wall Street by mid-afternoon, causing the market to retreat about 3%. The sudden decline was named the “Babson Break.”

The reaction from business insiders was immediate. Rather than respond by saying, “Thanks for the warning—we’ll proceed cautiously,” Wall Street vilified him. The Chicago Tribune published numerous rebuffs from a host of economists and Wall Street leaders. Even Mr. Babson’s patriotism was taken into question for making so rash a projection. Noted economist Professor Irving Fisher stated emphatically, “There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.” He and many others repeatedly soothed investors, advising them that a resumption in the boom was imminent. Financier Bernard Baruch famously cabled Winston Churchill, “Financial storm definitely passed.” Even President Herbert Hoover assured Americans that the market was sound.

But, 55 days after Mr. Babson’s speech, on 29th October, 1929, the market suddenly went into a free-fall, dropping 12% in its first day.

Today, most people have the general impression that on Black Friday, the market crashed and almost immediately, there were breadlines. Not so. In the Great Depression, as in any depression, the market collapsed in stages. The market did not reach its bottom of 89% losses until July of 1932.

Along the way, thousands of banks and lending institutions went belly-up. Thirteen million jobs disappeared.

And of course, the political leaders of the day did their bit. They implemented knee-jerk “solutions” that actually worsened the situation. Restrictive tariffs, gold confiscation, and a more dominant government were employed, just as they will be this time around.

So, as the market tumbled, we would imagine that Babson came to be praised by Wall Street for his insight, but in fact, the opposite occurred. Having accused him of being utterly incorrect in September, they later accused him of having caused the depression.

So, was Babson’s prediction a lucky guess? Did he simply observe the bull market and arbitrarily predict the opposite of the trend of the day to see what would happen? Not at all.

Such predictions are not guesswork, nor are they attributable to a vision seen in some crystal ball. Such crashes are entirely predictable. When any major bull market becomes overbought; when too many investors begin buying on margin because they can’t come up with the purchase price for stocks; when they then become even more obsessive and borrow money to buy on margin, the market has become a house of cards, waiting for the slightest breeze to come along.

Read more here.

Filed Under: Investing Strategies

Happy Thanksgiving!

November 28, 2024 By Richard Young

By Alexander Raths @ Adobe Stock

Filed Under: Feature

MY PAYDAY INDICATOR: Are You Getting Paid to Invest?

October 14, 2024 By Richard Young

By zobaair @ Adobe Stock

 

UPDATE 10.14.24: In September, the Federal Reserve did cut rates by 50bps and signaled another 50bps in cuts by the end of 2024. I’ve updated my Payday Indicator chart below so you can see the diminishing yield investors can expect on their money. 

Originally posted August 2, 2024.

The market believes the Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates in September and that the Fed could cut them by 75 basis points by the end of the year. Of course, this analysis comes after the market completely misjudged the Fed’s intentions about cuts in December 2023. So, take all predictions with more than a grain of salt. But comments from Jerome Powell and other Fed officials indicate they may be more seriously considering cuts now than last year. 

Long-time readers will remember my Payday Indicator, an indicator based on stock and bond yields that gives an approximation of the yield on a balanced portfolio. I have used this basic calculation as my guide since I graduated from Shaker Heights High School, listening to Chuck Berry in the late ’50s. I’ve watched this number for over six and half decades, and for most of the last two, investors weren’t getting paid nearly enough. Historically low Federal Reserve rates sapped the yield investors could expect to earn on their money. Only since 2022 has my indicator returned to something remotely normal, though nowhere near what it was in the 80s or even the early 90s. 

 

For now, you’re still getting paid to invest, but with the Fed poised to potentially cut rates, that may not last for long. Act accordingly. Click here to find your port in a storm and sign up for my email alert. 

Filed Under: Investing Strategies

What the Iran Situation Means for Gold

August 22, 2024 By Richard Young

UPDATE 8.22.24: Tensions are once again high in the Middle East, with a war between Israel and Hamas underway and the prospect of Iran and its allies taking a more active role against Israel. Iran has promised strikes against Israel in retaliation for Israel’s killing of Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas official, on Iranian soil. Rather than strike back right away, Iranian leaders suggest strikes will come at a time of their choosing. With the Middle East ready to boil over and many other parts of the globe in turmoil, is it any wonder gold is hitting all-time highs? Take a look at my chart below.

Geopolitical fear is only one component of gold’s rise. As you can see in the chart below, inflation is also playing a role. Despite gold reaching new highs in nominal terms, in real terms, gold’s price is elevated, but nowhere near its all-time highs of the 1980s.

Originally posted on January 9, 2020.

Since the end of 2019, gold prices have been on a breakout trajectory. Now, in response to rising tensions with Iran, things are getting very interesting.

The news that the United States had bombed Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani increased the perception of risk in the Middle East and drove the price of gold even higher.

I have always suggested to investors that they maintain a gold component in their portfolios, not as a road to riches but as an insurance policy against inflation, disaster, and war. Typically, when every other asset’s price is falling, gold’s is rising.

Here’s how I explained it back in 1986:

Throughout history gold has been the money of last resort. Every central bank in the industrialized world holds gold as an international reserve asset. Countries like Switzerland maintain a high percentage of gold holdings in relation to total money supply.

What is the proper course to take in building a gold cornerstone for investment portfolios? Most individuals look to bullion coins, mining shares, and gold certificates from major banks. I like certificates when an individual has no interest whatsoever in gold and invests in gold strictly as a portfolio tool. Certificates also have appeal for institutional investors. Gold mining shares should not be used as a gold proxy for cornerstone positions.

Gold share mutual funds should be considered in the stock fund section of one’s portfolio, but not in the gold cornerstone section. Shares are subject to political and natural disruptions that invalidate their inclusion as gold cornerstone investments.

Since I wrote those words, a lot has changed in the way Americans can invest in gold. The creation of gold-backed ETFs was probably the most significant development. To learn more about how to invest in gold today, click here.

If you would like to understand how my family-run investment counsel firm uses precious metals to craft counterbalanced portfolios, sign up for Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd’s monthly client letter. The letter is free, even for non-clients. You don’t want to miss it.

Filed Under: Investing Strategies Tagged With: precious

The Reason the Fed Keeps Interest Rates Low

August 20, 2024 By Richard Young

On July 15, 2024, Chair Powell participated in a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

At the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity, former congressman and presidential candidate Dr. Ron Paul explains that the “desire to monetize the federal debt is one reason, if not the main reason, why the central bank keeps interest rates low.” He writes:

Politicians favor an “easy money” policy because it creates an (illusionary) economic boom. The Fed-created boom helps the politicians remain in office. A reason politicians favor low interest rates is they facilitate government spending and debt, thus enabling politicians to aid powerful special interests via government spending. The desire to monetize the federal debt is one reason, if not the main reason, why the central bank keeps interest rates low.

The policy of perpetually low interest rates favored by politicians will hasten the inevitable collapse of the fiat money system.

He concludes:

Since Congress created the Fed in 1913, the US dollar has lost over 97 percent of its purchasing power. This proves Donald Trump is right about the need for drastic changes in monetary policy. However, he is wrong to think that he, or any politician, bureaucrat, or businessperson, is capable of knowing the “correct” interest rate. Instead of giving politicians greater ability to influence the Federal Reserve, the next president should work with Congress to pass legislation legalizing competing currencies, forbidding the Fed from purchasing federal debt, and auditing and ending the Federal Reserve.

You can see what Paul is referring to in the charts below. The first is the total marketable and non-marketable public debt of the United States.

The second chart is a visual of the plight of the American dollar since the creation of the Federal Reserve. As Paul said, you can see that the dollar has lost around 97% of its value. That calculation uses the generous, government-massaged inflation numbers of the CPI.

Read more from Paul here.

Filed Under: Investing Strategies

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