The Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve for the next four years and for a 14-year term as a governor. You know that my preference is to end the Fed. The central bank has a 100% error rate. But as long as it exists, aiming to give the Fed the best leadership possible is important. No chairman will be perfect, and every chairman will be forced to make compromises because the Federal Reserve is built on a contradictory mandate that sometimes gives policymakers no good options. But during the Financial Crisis, Warsh was one of the few Fed officials who stood up to suggest restraint at a time when the bank's leadership seemed hell-bent on breaking all … [Read More...]
Young's World Money Forecast
Since 1978 With a 32 Year Vacation
U.S. Energy Exports Hit Record Highs
Exports of oil and natural gas products have hit their highest levels ever as a result of the war with Iran and the disruption to energy flows out of the Persian Gulf. And it's not just LNG and crude oil that are reaching new highs, other natural gas plant liquids are also being exported at the highest levels ever. The EIA reports: Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) exports reached 3.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, growing 7% from the previous year. These fuels are primarily extracted from the natural gas stream. NGPL plant production has increased every year since 2005, driven by higher … [Read More...]
The Magic of Compound Interest
UPDATE 4.13.26: Despite the many changes the world has seen since 2017, and all the chaos it endures today, my basic investment tenets haven't changed. I wrote in 2017: Well, writing to you now, five decades later, from our outside kitchen/living space in the heart of Old Town, Key West, I can’t help but think how much water has gone under the bridge through the many decades. But if you have been with me over the years, you are keenly aware that it is indeed the combination of dividends, compound interest, perspective and patience that frames the message I deliver to you month after month. I do not change course. You can count on it. Originally posted April 5, 2022. Back in 1964, I … [Read More...]
Ben Graham: Margin of Safety
In 2001, I wrote about Ben Graham and his Margin of Safety: Creating Wealth Through the Power of Compound Growth Ben Graham, 1894-1976... Warren Buffett has referred to Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor as "by far the best book on investing ever written." John Train, a former super Forbes columnist, wrote, "Graham ranks as this century's (and perhaps history's) most important thinker on applied portfolio investment." In the preface to Graham's fourth revised edition printed in 1973, W.B. wrote, "It is rare that the founder of a discipline does not find his work eclipsed in rather short order by successors. But over forty years after publication of the book (first written in … [Read More...]
65 Years of Compounding: March 18, 2026 – No Changes
The article below was written about me way back in 1991. Nearly four decades later, I still advise real investors on compound interest, the Prudent Man Rule, and Ben Graham's Margin of Safety. I do not speculate or invest on stock stories--never have. I invest on simple mathematics. All you need is time and a compound interest table. I don't buy stories, I compound interest and dividends. -- Dick Young Originally posted November 5, 2025. … [Read More...]
War Is Expensive
Since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran last Friday in Operation Epic Fury, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has gone from $65.20/barrel at the close on February 26, to $78.20 at the close on March 5, and prices are already at near $86/barrel in trading this morning. That's an increase of over 31%, and doesn't include rising prices as markets began to price in an attack earlier in the year. Since December 16, WTI crude oil prices are up over 55%. War is expensive. President Trump posted this morning that there will be no deals made with Iran, writing on Truth Social: There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the … [Read More...]
The Declining Dollar?
There has been a lot of discussion in the financial news media over the decline of the dollar, and certainly America's rapidly increasing debt and inflation have added risk to the currency, but the dollar's decline since its peak at the start of 2025 doesn't appear to be at crisis levels, just yet. Take a look at my chart below of the Bank of International Settlements' Real Effective Exchange Rate Index (broad) for the dollar. In the chart, you can see larger moves in the dollar compared to what has happened over the last year. The most significant is that which occurred from February 2002, bottoming out in July 2011. A number of factors contributed to the long decline of the dollar from … [Read More...]
Gold’s 50-Year Price Explosion
Originally posted on July 27, 2020. Part I I was there from the start. In early August 1971, I had just joined internationally focused research and trading firm Model Roland & Co. On 15 August 1971, President Nixon shocked the world by announcing that the U. S. would no longer officially trade dollars for gold. At that time, gold’s fixed price was $35/oz. By 1980, gold would hit an astronomical $800/oz. OK then, back to Model and the firm’s wonderful head partner Leo Model. From my first day onboard at Model, I started covering a bevy of major Boston institutional accounts. I was 30 years old, and I would become friends with analysts, portfolio managers and traders at Wellington … [Read More...]
Natural Gas Prices Jump on Ice Storm Threat
With a big ice storm coming, natural gas buyers have driven prices up on worries that production facilities will be impacted by the severe weather. Prices for Henry Hub gas rose to $4.96/MMBTU yesterday, a jump of 62% compared to only two days prior. The intense storm predictions cover areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, as well as Pennsylvania, home to the Marcellus shale formation. In the map below, you can see America's top 100 natural gas fields by reserves, with a significant portion positioned within the storm's predicted track. As America has reduced coal consumption, it has rapidly increased natural gas consumption. Disruptions to production now will … [Read More...]
The Fed Should Be Careful with Lower Rates
From August 15, 1971, the day President Nixon officially took America off the gold standard (the system had been breaking down for years beforehand) to September 17, 2007, the day before the Ben Bernanke-led Federal Reserve began what would be an unprecedented economic intervention in the face of the Financial Crisis, the mean interest rate of 3-month T-bills was 6.08%. For the 18 years following Bernanke’s intrusion on markets, it’s been 1.39%. For decades, I have called the 90-day T-bill the investor’s “North Star.” The T-bill is the risk-free rate of return you can use to chart your course among other investments. The “Real North Star” is the risk-free rate of return with inflation taken … [Read More...]
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The information contained here is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended nor should it be considered investment advice or a recommendation of securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It is possible to lose money by investing. You should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before investing.