Young's World Money Forecast

Since 1978 With a 32 Year Vacation

The Declining Dollar?

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There has been a lot of discussion in the financial news media over the decline of the dollar, and certainly America's rapidly increasing debt and inflation have added risk to the currency, but the dollar's decline since its peak at the start of 2025 doesn't appear to be at crisis levels, just yet. Take a look at my chart below of the Bank of International Settlements' Real Effective Exchange Rate Index (broad) for the dollar. In the chart, you can see larger moves in the dollar compared to what has happened over the last year. The most significant is that which occurred from February 2002, bottoming out in July 2011. A number of factors contributed to the long decline of the dollar from … [Read More...]

Gold’s 50-Year Price Explosion

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Originally posted on July 27, 2020. Part I I was there from the start.  In early August 1971, I had just joined internationally focused research and trading firm Model Roland & Co. On 15 August 1971, President Nixon shocked the world by announcing that the U. S. would no longer officially trade dollars for gold. At that time, gold’s fixed price was $35/oz. By 1980, gold would hit an astronomical $800/oz. OK then, back to Model and the firm’s wonderful head partner Leo Model. From my first day onboard at Model, I started covering a bevy of major Boston institutional accounts.  I was 30 years old, and I would become friends with analysts, portfolio managers and traders at Wellington … [Read More...]

Natural Gas Prices Jump on Ice Storm Threat

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With a big ice storm coming, natural gas buyers have driven prices up on worries that production facilities will be impacted by the severe weather. Prices for Henry Hub gas rose to $4.96/MMBTU yesterday, a jump of 62% compared to only two days prior.  The intense storm predictions cover areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, as well as Pennsylvania, home to the Marcellus shale formation.    In the map below, you can see America's top 100 natural gas fields by reserves, with a significant portion positioned within the storm's predicted track.  As America has reduced coal consumption, it has rapidly increased natural gas consumption. Disruptions to production now will … [Read More...]

The Fed Should Be Careful with Lower Rates

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From August 15, 1971, the day President Nixon officially took America off the gold standard (the system had been breaking down for years beforehand) to September 17, 2007, the day before the Ben Bernanke-led Federal Reserve began what would be an unprecedented economic intervention in the face of the Financial Crisis, the mean interest rate of 3-month T-bills was 6.08%. For the 18 years following Bernanke’s intrusion on markets, it’s been 1.39%. For decades, I have called the 90-day T-bill the investor’s “North Star.” The T-bill is the risk-free rate of return you can use to chart your course among other investments. The “Real North Star” is the risk-free rate of return with inflation taken … [Read More...]

Richard C. Young Explains: How to Invest Like Einstein

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Originally posted October 23, 2018. When asked to name the greatest invention in history, Albert Einstein responded, compound interest. Over three decades ago I started our family investment counsel firm focusing on the miracle of compound interest to help retired and soon to be retired investors just like you. My short and quick goal was, as it remains today, safety of principal and a consistent flow of income through investors’ long and peaceful retirements. In J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Hobbit, when the wizard Gandalf asked Bilbo Baggins to take part in an adventure, the Hobbit told Gandalf that he viewed adventures as “… nasty, disturbing, uncomfortable things! Make you late for … [Read More...]

The Singularity Is Nearer: Ray Kurzweil

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Originally posted May 28, 2025. Ray Kurzweil has been a leading developer of artificial intelligence for 61 years, longer than any other living human. I am reading his most recent book, The Singularity is Nearer: When We Merge with AI. The implications of artificial intelligence are immense, and Kurzweil is viewing the technology from the forefront in his position as Principal Researcher and AI Visionary at Google. The book's website explains: The world’s most renowned oracle of technological change shows how human minds will merge with AI within the next two decades and what this momentous transformation will mean for us all. One of the greatest inventors of our time, … [Read More...]

Concentrate on Dividend Record and Compounding

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Originally posted March 11, 2020.  There are few histories as crucial to the course of my life as my awakening to the power of compound interest and the importance of dividends. Since my decision to climb on the dividend bandwagon, I have been an evangelist to hundreds of thousands of paid subscribers, and many more investors beyond. My message has been consistent and clear, and I don’t regret focusing on dividends a bit. Here’s how it all started. Back to Monterey and Woodstock I’ve been developing investment strategies for investors like you before The Association kicked off the 1967 Monterey International Pop Festival with “Along Comes Mary” or Richie Havens opened Woodstock in August … [Read More...]

65 Years of Compounding

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The article below was written about me way back in 1991. Nearly four decades later, I still advise real investors on compound interest, the Prudent Man Rule, and Ben Graham's Margin of Safety. I do not speculate or invest on stock stories--never have. I invest on simple mathematics. All you need is time and a compound interest table.  … [Read More...]

Ben Graham: Margin of Safety

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In 2001, I wrote about Ben Graham and his Margin of Safety: Creating Wealth Through the Power of Compound Growth Ben Graham, 1894-1976... Warren Buffett has referred to Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor as "by far the best book on investing ever written." John Train, a former super Forbes columnist, wrote, "Graham ranks as this century's (and perhaps history's) most important thinker on applied portfolio investment." In the preface to Graham's fourth revised edition printed in 1973, W.B. wrote, "It is rare that the founder of a discipline does not find his work eclipsed in rather short order by successors. But over forty years after publication of the book (first written in … [Read More...]

My Top 10 Fund Investments

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My top fund investments include three fixed income-centric funds, two gold funds, two dividend-centric equity funds, two inflation hedge energy funds, and one dividend-centric consumer equity fund for a total of ten major positions in all. My fund volatility in the normal year approaches zero. 100% of my investing is based on the Prudent Man Rule and Ben Graham’s Margin of Safety. I do not speculate with the money I have worked a lifetime to earn, and I never have. I have never taken what most investors refer to as a significant loss. In fact, I can rightfully be referred to as a pretty boring investor. … [Read More...]

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Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd.

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Disclaimer:

The information contained here is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended nor should it be considered investment advice or a recommendation of securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It is possible to lose money by investing. You should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before investing.