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Bessent: The Fed Must Change Course, but No Mention of Gold

September 8, 2025 By Richard Young

Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent looks on as President Donald Trump and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines participate in a bilateral meeting, Tuesday, July 22, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal the dangers of the expanding responsibilities and power of the Federal Reserve. He noted the Fed’s expanded powers granted in the Dodd-Frank Act, and that fifteen years afterward, the results of granting the central bank those extra powers have been disappointing. He wrote:

Regulatory overreach compounds the problem. The Dodd-Frank Act dramatically enlarged the Fed’s supervisory footprint, transforming it into the dominant regulator of U.S. finance. Fifteen years on, the results are disappointing. The 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank illustrates the dangers of combining supervision and monetary policy. The Fed now regulates, lends to and sets the profitability calculus for the banks it oversees, an unavoidable conflict that blurs accountability and jeopardizes independence. A more coherent framework would restore specialization: empowering the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to lead bank supervision, while leaving the Fed to macro surveillance, lender-of-last-resort liquidity and monetary policy.

At the heart of independence lies credibility and political legitimacy. Both have been jeopardized by the Fed’s expansion beyond its mandate. Heavy intervention has produced severe distributional outcomes, undermined credibility and threatened independence. Looking ahead, the Fed must scale back the distortions it causes in the economy. Unconventional policies such as quantitative easing should be used only in true emergencies, in coordination with the rest of the federal government. There must also be an honest, independent, nonpartisan review of the entire institution, including monetary policy, regulation, communications, staffing and research.

The U.S. faces short- and medium-term economic challenges, along with the long-term consequences of a central bank that has placed its own independence in jeopardy. The Fed’s independence comes from public trust. The central bank must recommit to maintaining the confidence of the American people. To safeguard its future and the stability of the U.S. economy, the Fed must re-establish its credibility as an independent institution focused solely on its statutory mandate of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.

Responding to Bessent’s op-ed in The New York Sun, former economic advisor to President Trump, Larry Kudlow, celebrates the coming “takeover” of the Fed by President Trump’s appointed governors. He writes:

As I have suggested, the economy, both present and future, is stronger than folks may think.

Unsurprisingly, President Trump responded with a brief post on Truth Social, saying, “Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should have lowered rates long ago.” Mr. Trump exclaimed: “As usual, he’s ‘Too Late.’”

Hopefully Mr. “Too Late” Powell will get the Fed’s fund target rate down to 3 percent from its current 4.5 percent by the end of this year.

Yet the bigger story is perhaps best summarized in a Wall Street Journal headline, “Trump Is Making Strides In His Takeover of the Fed,” as the Council of Economic Advisers chairman, Stephen Miran, is taking a leave of absence in order to temporarily fill a Fed seat on the central bank’s board of governors.

The New York Sun’s editors further riffed on Kudlow’s response with another editorial on September 7, wondering why Bessent hadn’t mentioned gold, and wondering why the administration hadn’t made more of the issue.

The first thing we did when we saw Mr. Bessent’s column was to scan it for the word “gold.” The monetary metal was unmentioned. That strikes us as odd. On that very day, after all, the value in terms of gold at which greenbacks were trading was about to set a new low of less than a 3,558th of an ounce of the monetary metal. When graphed it’s at the bottom of a decades-long slide. It’s the lowest value in terms of gold ever recorded for the greenback.

We understand that, in the age of fiat money, the legislated value of the dollar is not supposed to matter. In 1971, Nixon closed the gold window at which foreign governments could redeem dollars they held at a 35th of an ounce of gold. In 1973, Congress set the value of the dollar at a 42.22nd of an ounce of gold. Yet Uncle Sam hasn’t enforced that. It is amazing just how loath is our leadership at the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to open up this issue.

What’s so startling about the official silence on the collapse of the dollar is that Mr. Bessent and, above him, President Trump would be — or so it seems to us — a promising pair to take on the issue of fiat money. In the 2016 Republican primaries, moreover, Mr. Trump was widely quoted as saying, per NPR, “Bringing back the gold standard would be very hard to do, but, boy, would it be wonderful. We’d have a standard on which to base our money.”

It doesn’t appear likely that Trump or Bessent will lead a push for a return to the gold standard. The immediate effects of such a move would be counter to the greater priorities Trump has signalled in increasing American manufacturing. If a gold standard were introduced, the value of a dollar would likely soar in comparison to international fiat currencies, and imports could become cheaper relative to American manufactured goods, driving up imports and driving down American manufacturing jobs. Those looking for America to return to the gold standard will likely be waiting for another president.

Filed Under: Gold

Richard Young Reports: 50+ Years with Fidelity and Wellington

August 15, 2025 By Richard Young

I started in the institutional research and trading investment business at Model Roland & Co. on Federal St. in Boston in August 1971. Just up the street from Model were Fidelity Investments, and Wellington Management, both of whom I called on from my very first hours on the job.

Over five decades ago, Ned Johnson, aka “Mister Johnson,” ran the show at Fidelity. At Wellington, Jack Bogle, “Mr. Mutual Fund,” had not yet left Wellington to start Vanguard.   

My focus in the initial going was international research and trading, and remains so today all these decades later.  I still consider Fidelity and Wellington the industry leaders.

Both firms feature great cultures, industry-leading technology, well-rounded investment programs for individuals, families, and small businesses–the type of folk I hoped to be associated with throughout my investment career.     

Not a business day goes by that one of my associated companies is not involved with one or more of Fidelity or Wellington’s services.

I never would have expected, as I started out in August 1971, that I would be working with Fidelity and Wellington for over 50 years.

In Wellington’s case it, to this day, manages hundreds of billions of dollars in blue-chip, “prudent man rule” quality investment mutual funds. 

In the early ’90s, Wellington’s chief investor relations officer informed me that I directed more mutual fund assets Wellington’s way in a given year than did the rest of the combined American investment newsletter industry.

And now in 2025, with our little family investment management company requiring a cutting-edge custodian for our $1.8 billion-dollar conservative Boston-style management company we, not surprisingly, rely on Fidelity. 

Your Survival Guy, hard to believe, joined my family business over two decades ago. But before that, he was at Fidelity which he too recalls as being run like a family business. He writes:

When I joined the family business [Fidelity], I was Fidelity employee number twenty-something-thousand. I helped customers/participants of Fortune 500 companies manage their money in this fairly new savings vehicle known by its IRS code: 401(k). It turned out to be a thing. I’ll always remember how CEO Ned Johnson III ran the firm like the family business that it was.

In memos to employees, Mr. Johnson wrote to you as if you were seated around him at the dinner table. Business first, then, after some red wine and dessert (and maybe a piece of dark chocolate for digestion; because he was into taking care of one’s health) he’d leave you with something to think about—like his favored Japanese philosophy Kaizen, meaning constant improvement. Reading his memo in my little cubicle, not at his dinner table, I truly believed that through small steps—like compound interest—I could become the best version of myself. Then it was back to stuffing checks into envelopes.

We need to be reminded of this in times like these. Because when a video game company you typically see at the Mall can stop the market in its tracks, you need to figure out if you’re doing everything you can to protect your money. Are you with an investment company that treats you like a family member? Take a look at the brokerage firms selling their clients’ (I hope not yours) trading patterns to their other customers—these are household names that may (or may not) surprise you. Pay attention.

Action Line: Get your money with a firm that treats you like family. Too many investment firms are profiting from you, for example, with your information without you even knowing it. And don’t get me started on how they use your cash to lend out to others and pocket the profit.

P.S. Read more about how I got my start at Model Roland & Co. back in 1971, and gold’s 50-year price explosion.

Originally posted February 23, 2021.

Filed Under: Investing Strategies

Gold’s 50-Year Price Explosion

July 24, 2025 By Richard Young

Originally posted on July 27, 2020.

Part I

I was there from the start.  In early August 1971, I had just joined internationally focused research and trading firm Model Roland & Co.

On 15 August 1971, President Nixon shocked the world by announcing that the U. S. would no longer officially trade dollars for gold. At that time, gold’s fixed price was $35/oz.

By 1980, gold would hit an astronomical $800/oz.

OK then, back to Model and the firm’s wonderful head partner Leo Model. From my first day onboard at Model, I started covering a bevy of major Boston institutional accounts.  I was 30 years old, and I would become friends with analysts, portfolio managers and traders at Wellington Management, Fidelity Investments, First National Bank of Boston, State Street Bank, State Street Research, Endowment Management, Studley Shupert, and Keystone Management through my entire investment career on Federal Street in Boston.

I immediately realized that international trading (including gold shares and arbitrage), as well as monetary strategy and world currencies, was going to be my focus from August 1971 onward.

Five decades later, these subjects remain today my daily focus. I have been a buyer of gold, silver, and Swiss francs for decades, and I have never sold a single one of my positions.

By 1972 I was off to London on a mission for Leo Model. My job was to produce a strategy report for Model, Roland & Co on the international gold shares market. It took eight days in London to meet all the insiders with whom Mr. Model had arranged visits. Except for a single, most unpleasant glitch, (understatement) all went well.

I went on to submit a 25-page strategy report to Mr. Model. Shortly thereafter I was informed that Mr. Model had sent my report along to the firm’s chief monetary guru, one Edward M. Bernstein, one of the architects of the Bretton Woods monetary agreement.

Remember, I was 31 years old, and quite terrified to hear that EMB had been brought into the loop.

On 7 August 1972,  I received the surprise of my young life: EMB wrote  back on his corporate letterhead:

I think the collection of papers on gold is excellent. It seems objective and pointed. I have no suggestions. Put me on the list to get what you put out on gold.

Sincerely,

Edward M. Bernstein

Although I did not know it at the time, a year later, I would no longer be at Model, Roland.

Check back in with richardcyoung.com for my introduction Part II and the kickoff of our industry-leading precious metals, currencies, monetary madness, fed maleficence and dollar destruction weekly update.

Warm regards,

Dick

 

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Filed Under: Investing Strategies Tagged With: precious

Would the Pat Buchanan Plan Work Today?

July 9, 2025 By Richard Young

By Ksu_Sha @ Adobe Stock

In July 2014, I outlined for readers a plan by Pat Buchanan to end the corporate income tax. Pat’s plan, or one like it, could revolutionize the American economy. I wrote:

Pat Buchanan suggests abolishing the corporate income tax and replacing it with a revenue-neutral 10% tariff on imports. Pat maintains that imports kill U.S. jobs and subtract from GDP. What, laments Pat, has our political class done to our once self-sufficient American Republic? Pat’s idea would give a huge boost to our economy. A flat 10% tax on corporate profits, personal income, and retail sales might face less severe headwinds in passing muster in Congress. Either concept would prove a valued tonic that all Americans could warmly embrace.

The tariff plan released by President Trump, with a 10% tariff on most countries and higher tariffs on countries with the largest trade deficits, is substantially similar to Pat’s plan from all those years ago.

President Trump has said a number of times that he’d like to replace the income tax with tariffs, but according to the Tax Foundation, that probably isn’t possible. Erica York and Huaqun Li write:

Even eliminating income taxes for a subset of taxpayers, such as those earning $200,000 or less, would require significantly higher replacement revenues than tariffs could generate. We simulated zeroing out positive tax liability for taxpayers earning under $200,000 without making any changes to tax credits (so, taxpayers could still qualify for refundable portions of tax credits but many would not benefit from non-refundable tax credits as they have zero tax liability to offset). We estimate it would reduce federal tax revenue by $737.5 billion in 2025 on a conventional basis. Over the 10-year budget window, it would reduce federal tax revenue by nearly $8.5 trillion on a conventional basis.

The tariffs Trump has imposed and scheduled as of April 2025 would generate nearly $167 billion in new tax revenue for the federal government in 2025 on a conventional basis, or less than 25 percent of the cost of eliminating income taxes for people earning below $200,000.

The Tax Foundation’s prediction of $167 billion in new revenue from tariffs suggests about $14 billion per month, on top of what was about $7 billion per month of tariff duties collected regularly. In May, the United States collected a total of $22 billion in customs duties (tariffs). Pulling out the $7 billion that was normal before Trump’s tariffs, that’s an additional $15 billion per month, or $180 billion per year. That’s already more than the Tax Foundation’s projection, and Trump hasn’t even instituted full tariffs on most countries. But this week, he announced that more tariffs are coming fast for countries that refuse to make trade deals. On August 1, tariffs on a number of countries will be raised from 10% to 25% or higher. Those countries include:

  • Japan 25%
  • South Korea 25%
  • Malaysia 25%
  • Kazakhstan 25%
  • Tunisia 25%
  • South Africa 30%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina 30%
  • Indonesia 32%
  • Bangladesh 35%
  • Serbia 35%
  • Cambodia 36%
  • Thailand 36%
  • Laos 45%

It remains to be seen just how high American tariffs on imports will be, and if trade deals are signed between Trump’s administration and foreign nations, perhaps there won’t be many tariffs at all. But it appears that revenues could be significantly higher than the original Tax Foundation prediction. And while probably not high enough to eliminate the individual income tax, perhaps, as Pat suggested, the corporate tax could be reduced drastically or even eliminated altogether.

In 2024, the United States collected just under $490 billion in corporate tax receipts. The annualized 12-month moving average of imports to America in May was $4.16 trillion.  

So, how much would Trump have to charge on all those imports to generate enough to cover the corporate tax? First, I’ll back out $7 billion a month, so it’s only “new” customs duties being used. Once that’s factored in, replacing corporate taxes with tariff revenues would demand a 13.8% effective rate on all imports.

These are static numbers in a dynamic world, but as a thought experiment, it’s compelling. The idea of bringing the corporate tax rate to zero creates a host of new possibilities for job creation and innovation in the United States. Imagine how competitive American corporations could be when paying no taxes on their profits. The rate is slightly higher than Pat Buchanan was hoping for, but if he reads this, I don’t think he’ll grumble too much.

Pat wrote in one of his most read columns, in May 2019, titled Tariffs: The Taxes That Made America Great, “Of the nations that have risen to economic preeminence in recent centuries — the British before 1850, the United States between 1789 and 1914, post-war Japan, China in recent decades — how many did so through free trade? None. All practiced economic nationalism.”

Perhaps the elimination of the corporate tax rate could make American business great again.

 

 

Filed Under: Feature

The Singularity Is Nearer: Ray Kurzweil

May 28, 2025 By Richard Young

Ray Kurzweil has been a leading developer of artificial intelligence for 61 years, longer than any other living human. I am reading his most recent book, The Singularity is Nearer: When We Merge with AI. The implications of artificial intelligence are immense, and Kurzweil is viewing the technology from the forefront in his position as Principal Researcher and AI Visionary at Google. The book’s website explains:

The world’s most renowned oracle of technological change shows how human minds will merge with AI within the next two decades and what this momentous transformation will mean for us all.

One of the greatest inventors of our time, futurist Ray Kurzweil published his landmark book The Singularity Is Near in 2005 and dozens of his predictions about technological advancements have come true—with concepts like AI, intelligent machines, and biotechnology now widely familiar to the public.

In this visionary and fundamentally optimistic new book, Kurzweil brings a fresh perspective to advances toward the Singularity. Kurzweil predicts that by the end of this decade, AI will exceed human levels of intelligence and by 2045, we’ll be able to enhance our intelligence a millionfold, expanding our consciousness in ways we can barely imagine by connecting our brains directly to the cloud. Human life will be changed forever once we live free from the limits of biology—and this eventuality is drawing ever nearer.

Topics touched on by Kurzweil in the book are:

  • Rebuilding the world, atom by atom with devices like nanobots
  • Radical life extension beyond the current age limit of 120
  • Reinventing intelligence by connecting our brains to the cloud
  • How exponential technologies are propelling innovation and improving all aspects of our well-being
  • The growth of renewable energy and 3D printing, which can be applied to everything from clothes to building materials to growing human organs
  • Addressing potential perils of biotechnology, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence
  • AI’s impact employment and human safety
  • “After Life” technology to reanimate those who have passed away through a combination of data and DNA
  • How this next stage of humanity’s evolution can and will transform life on earth profoundly for the better

Kurzweil discusses his vision of AI in the video below:

Filed Under: Feature

What Is Gold Telling Investors? And the Dow 30?

April 17, 2025 By Richard Young

By saritwat @ Adobe Stock

Take a good look at my chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow 30) and the price of gold. You can see gold hitting new highs at $3,342/troy ounce, while the DJIA Index has fallen to 39,669 points, or a drop of about 11.9% since peaking on December 4, 2024. 

Gold is in a secular bull market, and it will remain in a secular bull market until the world’s central banks stop printing excessive amounts of money and governments stop issuing excessive amounts of debt. One indicator of prospective returns in gold is the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the price of gold. When the ratio is falling, gold is outperforming the Dow. Over the last 124 years, as portrayed in the chart below, there have been three completed secular bull markets in gold versus the Dow. The current bull market is the fourth.

 

In each of the previous bull markets, the ratio of the Dow to gold dropped below six. Today, the Dow is trading at 12X gold. How much further it will fall is anyone’s guess. Don’t put yourself in the prediction business. Understand, though, that as the ratio falls, the relative affordability of the Dow is rising. 

Can you own too much gold? For most investors, 10% is probably the max. You buy gold as an insurance policy. Gold offers protection against inflation, currency debasement, and political and geopolitical turmoil. I buy gold and hope it goes down, because when gold is falling, it is often true that everything else in your portfolio is rising. 

The Dow 30 today consists of these companies:

Symbol Company Yield %

AMZN

Amazon.com Inc 0

AXP

American Express Co 1.30

AMGN

Amgen Inc 3.37

AAPL

Apple Inc 0.51

BA

Boeing Co 0.00

CAT

Caterpillar Inc 1.94

CSCO

Cisco Systems Inc 2.94

CVX

Chevron Corp 5.05

GS

Goldman Sachs Group Inc 2.40

HD

Home Depot Inc 2.66

HON

Honeywell International Inc 2.34

IBM

International Business Machines Corp 2.80

JNJ

Johnson & Johnson 3.38

KO

Coca-Cola Co 2.85

JPM

JPMorgan Chase & Co 2.44

MCD

McDonald’s Corp 2.29

MMM

3M Co 2.24

MRK

Merck & Co Inc 4.24

MSFT

Microsoft Corp 0.89

NKE

Nike Inc 2.99

PG

Procter & Gamble Co 2.54

SHW

Sherwin-Williams Co 0.95

TRV

Travelers Companies Inc 1.74

UNH

UnitedHealth Group Inc 1.44

CRM

Salesforce Inc 0.67

NVDA

NVIDIA Corp 0.04

VZ

Verizon Communications Inc 6.21

V

Visa Inc 0.71

WMT

Walmart Inc 1.03

DIS

Walt Disney Co 1.21

If you follow the Dogs of the Dow strategy, you’ll quickly notice a few yields over 4%, with a few more in the 3% range. Historically, though, the yield on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still low at 1.84% today.

What are gold and the Dow telling investors today? Diversity can benefit a portfolio. I have always recommended diversification and patience built on a foundation of value and compound interest.

Click here to find your port in a storm. 

Filed Under: Dow Stocks, Gold

The Power of Gold

March 14, 2025 By Richard Young

By monsitj @ Adobe Stock

As the purchasing power of the American dollar has declined steadily since gold convertibility ended in 1971, the purchasing power of an ounce of gold is strong. The spot price of gold closed at an all-time high of $2,989 yesterday and crossed over $3,000 an ounce in trading today. 

The purchasing power of gold is also near record highs, though it hasn’t quite exceeded its peak during the hyperinflation of the 1980s. 

Since 1913, the year the Federal Reserve was created, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen by 96%. The purchasing power of a single ounce of gold over that same time period has more than doubled. That is no coincidence. Gold is a store of value—a wealth preservation vehicle. Gold won’t make you rich, but it also won’t make you poor. Gold is a currency. It can’t go bankrupt or lose its value because of poor management, accounting fraud, world war, or hyperinflation. Investors who truly understand gold recognize that gold should be counted in ounces, not in dollars. Because while the dollar value of gold may fluctuate from year to year, it will be worth many times its current value during the next generation and in those that follow.

Markets are stormy. Find your port in the storm by clicking here to subscribe to the Young’s World Money Forecast email alert. 

Filed Under: Gold

Good as Gold: Will Ron Paul Audit the Fed?

February 12, 2025 By Richard Young

Generated with Grok 2 via X.com

The price of gold has reached new highs. In 2017 I wrote to subscribers:

Since 1913, the year the Federal Reserve was created, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen 96%. The purchasing power of a single ounce of gold over that same time period has more than doubled. That is no coincidence. Gold is a store of value—a wealth preservation vehicle. Gold won’t make you rich, but it also won’t make you poor. Gold is a currency. It can’t go bankrupt, lose its value because of poor management, accounting fraud, world war, or hyper-inflation. Investors who truly understand gold recognize that gold should be counted in ounces, not in dollars. Because while the dollar value of gold may fluctuate from year-to-year, it will be worth many times its current value during the next generation and in those that follow.

As you can see on my chart below, gold is now at all time highs of over $2,900/ounce.

Demand for gold has caused inventory spikes at Comex warehouses:

But annual gold production growth in 2024 was only 1.5%, the same as it has been on a compound annual growth basis since 1969.

Demand for gold seems to be increasing, and production of gold has not been able to grow rapidly for some time and even sits today at slightly less than that of 2018. Silver production, too, has fallen, though the dynamics of that metal are somewhat different.

Another piece I wrote back in 2010 seems relevant today as DOGE rips into the operations of the bloated federal government and finds waste, fraud, and abuse throughout. I wrote:

The Great Money Flood

Inflation is a disease. After WWI, hyperinflation—when prices sometimes doubled and more than doubled from one day to the next—prepared the ground for Communism in Russia and Nazism in Germany. The story is told in Milton and Rose Friedman’s Free to Choose. As the Friedmans correctly point out, no government is willing to accept responsibility for producing inflation. The Friedmans present readers five simple truths that embody most of what we know about inflation. First, inflation is a monetary phenomenon arising from a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in the output. Second, government determines or can determine the quantity of money. Third, there is only one cure for inflation: a slower increase in the quantity of money. Fourth, it takes time, measured in years not months, for inflation to develop; it takes time for inflation to be cured. Fifth, unpleasant side effects of the cure are unavoidable

The Problem Starts With Government

Milton and Rose point the bony finger of blame at government. I have agreed with the Friedmans for decades. In 1978, I began Young’s World Money Forecast to write about inflation and inflation’s cousin: gold and currency debasement. In 1987, I wrote a book, Young’s Financial Armadillo Strategy, to further the discussion of inflation, gold and currency debasement in terms of investment portfolios. In the years since, I have found no reason to change or adapt my original approach to portfolio management based on the basic Friedman conclusions on government and inflation.

Government is where the problems start. And the bigger, more intrusive the central (as opposed to state) government becomes, the greater my concern for your and my welfare in both financial and personal security terms. An ongoing study and appraisal of central government is the only place to begin analysis of the climate for investing, business in general, and certainly your family’s personal security. An incorrect appraisal of the intentions of those charged with governing our country makes proper action regarding financial and personal security impossible. It’s just that simple.

There’s talk of putting former Congressman Dr. Ron Paul in charge of an audit of the Federal Reserve. That would be a great start in healing America’s broken monetary and fiscal systems. I’ll be watching, and writing about the developments surrounding gold, Ron Paul, the Fed, and your dollar. Click here to subscribe to Young’s World Money Forecast, your port in a storm.

Filed Under: Gold

Over Three Decades of Consistency

January 6, 2025 By Richard Young

Riding the yield curve and compounding decades of dividends. Practicing the faith of Ben Graham’s margin of safety, and honoring the Prudent Man Rule. I still write daily. You’ll find me on our family websites, so don’t miss out.

  • www.youngsworldmoneyforecast.com
  • www.youngresearch.com
  • www.richardcyoung.com
  • www.yoursurvivalguy.com

Filed Under: Investing Strategies

The Story of Roger Babson and the Great Depression

November 30, 2024 By Richard Young

Roger Babson, entrepreneur und business theorist from Massachusetts, between 1905 and 1945. Photo by Harris & Ewing, courtesy of the Library of Congress.

After successfully predicting the crash that led to the Great Depression, Roger Babson was vilified as though he were its cause. At Doug Casey’s International Man, Jeff Thomas explains the history of Roger Babson, founder of Babson College, which I attended.

“[A] crash is coming, and it may be terrific. …. The vicious circle will get in full swing and the result will be a serious business depression. There may be a stampede for selling which will exceed anything that the Stock Exchange has ever witnessed. Wise are those investors who now get out of debt.”

The above words could easily have been stated by me or another of the (very) few others who currently predict the coming of crashes in the markets.

But they were not. The statements above were made by investor Roger Babson at a speech at the Annual Business Conference in Massachusetts on 5th September, 1929.

Mr. Babson’s prediction was not a sudden one. In fact, he had been making the same prediction for the previous two years, although he, in September of 1929, felt the crash was much closer.

News of his speech reached Wall Street by mid-afternoon, causing the market to retreat about 3%. The sudden decline was named the “Babson Break.”

The reaction from business insiders was immediate. Rather than respond by saying, “Thanks for the warning—we’ll proceed cautiously,” Wall Street vilified him. The Chicago Tribune published numerous rebuffs from a host of economists and Wall Street leaders. Even Mr. Babson’s patriotism was taken into question for making so rash a projection. Noted economist Professor Irving Fisher stated emphatically, “There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.” He and many others repeatedly soothed investors, advising them that a resumption in the boom was imminent. Financier Bernard Baruch famously cabled Winston Churchill, “Financial storm definitely passed.” Even President Herbert Hoover assured Americans that the market was sound.

But, 55 days after Mr. Babson’s speech, on 29th October, 1929, the market suddenly went into a free-fall, dropping 12% in its first day.

Today, most people have the general impression that on Black Friday, the market crashed and almost immediately, there were breadlines. Not so. In the Great Depression, as in any depression, the market collapsed in stages. The market did not reach its bottom of 89% losses until July of 1932.

Along the way, thousands of banks and lending institutions went belly-up. Thirteen million jobs disappeared.

And of course, the political leaders of the day did their bit. They implemented knee-jerk “solutions” that actually worsened the situation. Restrictive tariffs, gold confiscation, and a more dominant government were employed, just as they will be this time around.

So, as the market tumbled, we would imagine that Babson came to be praised by Wall Street for his insight, but in fact, the opposite occurred. Having accused him of being utterly incorrect in September, they later accused him of having caused the depression.

So, was Babson’s prediction a lucky guess? Did he simply observe the bull market and arbitrarily predict the opposite of the trend of the day to see what would happen? Not at all.

Such predictions are not guesswork, nor are they attributable to a vision seen in some crystal ball. Such crashes are entirely predictable. When any major bull market becomes overbought; when too many investors begin buying on margin because they can’t come up with the purchase price for stocks; when they then become even more obsessive and borrow money to buy on margin, the market has become a house of cards, waiting for the slightest breeze to come along.

Read more here.

Filed Under: Investing Strategies

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