Long-time readers are familiar with Young Research’s Moving the Goods Index, a market-cap-weighted stock index made up of nonairline transportation companies. If I had to choose only one economic indicator to use, this would be it. Transportation companies lead the business cycle. The theory is that you have to move the goods before you sell them. If the index is reaching new highs, economic growth is likely improving. And if the index is dropping to new lows, economic growth is likely slowing.
For the last couple of years, since the end of the major Covid shutdowns, the index has been consolidating, with slightly higher highs and slightly higher lows. Keep your eye on my Moving the Goods Index as I post about it here. A breakdown could signal economic trouble ahead, and a breakout could signal faster growth to come.
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