Archives for February 2019

Back in December of 1997, I explained Wall Street analysts’ fixation with earnings, and more specifically, earnings guidance. I wrote:

Forget Wall Street’s Myopic Attachment to Quarterly Earnings

It’s important for you to grasp the primary control force of short-term market action. The control force is quarterly earnings reports versus Wall Street projections. Companies that fail to meet Street projections face utter carnage. However absurd this senseless, myopic concentration on quarterly earnings may be, it is reality. The gyrations brought on by earnings’ hits and misses confuse and worry individual investors. Forget these reports, and forget the gyrations as well. I beg you, with every market gyration, do not watch the bulging-eyed TV commentators who look like they’re hooked on heroin.

Instead, adopt a compound interest-based, long-term game plan that features prudent diversification, common sense, patience and rigorous adherence to rock-solid, time-tested principles. You will accumulate wealth at a rate beyond what you might never have considered possible.

It’s over twenty years later, and Wall Street hasn’t changed a bit. Despite having been walloped hard—twice—by mega stock market crashes, analysts are still focused on the ups and downs of quarterly earnings and guidance. Such a short-term view can wreak havoc on investors’ portfolios when market volatility appears.

If you want to sleep well at night, adopt the compound-interest based, prudent, diversified, common sense, patient and rigorous methods I described in 1997. For help with that approach, sign up in the form below to be contacted by a seasoned member of the investment staff at my family run investment counsel, Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd.  We can help you build a balanced portfolio.

Are you a trader or speculator? Or are you long term investor saving for a comfortable retirement? What’s your field of play?

In December of 2011 I wrote to readers explaining that each sport is dependent on the field of play. Coaches and players enter the game with a clear understanding of what they are trying to achieve, and the area within which they are trying to achieve it. Does that describe your current investment planning picture? If not, your first step is understanding your field of play. I wrote:

Football, baseball, soccer, hockey—each has something in common that can be translated into the investment world: Management knows in advance that 100% of the action will take place in a designated space, whether arena or field. As such, the focus is on a significant known. While it is true, certainly in baseball fields, that performance venues are different, the differences are known well in advance and are likely to remain static for a long time. Let’s take the Boston Red Sox. Whom, by the way, should we blame for this year’s disaster? Was it not convenient of Theo to leave bodies (see Crawford’s outrageous contract) strewn all over Fenway Park and then simply quit, walk away from the carnage, and jump to the Cubs?

Here’s the play. The Sox develop a team that is theoretically built to take advantage of the oddities of Fenway Park. The Yankees do the same tailored to a completely different mix of ballpark physical oddities. Many decades ago, I decided that field of-play thinking was necessary, at least for me, in order to allow disciplined thought and strategic planning on the investment front. Most investors, professional or amateur (I am never sure where the line is drawn), form decisions based upon news of the day, emotion, and the views of others. This crowd is action-oriented, wrongly believing that the more action in a given portfolio, the better odds for satisfactory performance. In fact, it’s exactly the opposite. I decided to take the news of the day off the table, to pay no attention to day-to-day market action, and to not seek out the opinion of others, but rather rely on my own thought process. This approach, of course, mandates extensive reading on a broad array of subjects. Enter inference reading as the heart of my decision-making process. The final leg involved putting all the information gathered from my reading and study into a workable format, or playing field.

When it comes to your investments, you must develop a plan that is more than just reliance on rising stock prices. Share prices can remain depressed for agonizingly long periods of time. A decade or more of no return with a regular retirement draw, can quickly decimate a life-time worth of savings.  Regular dividend payments offer a refreshing stream of income to help you navigate long dry spells in the stock market.  If you haven’t yet been convinced of the power of dividends, read what I wrote back in April of 1992 below:

Dividends Are Key to Your Stock Investing Success

Now what about individual stocks? Here, again, what you don’t do can be the key to your success. Don’t succumb to sales pressure. Don’t buy new issues (IPOs). Don’t buy secondaries. Don’t buy junk. When you are pressured to speculate and trade, resist.

Remember what I’ve so often told you—that the surest way to win in equities over time is by concentrating on dividends. Over many cycles, the Dow has provided a 9% total return (no commissions or taxes here) including capital appreciation and dividend yield. Dividend yield has accounted for a full 50% of total return. If you can choose between a stock with a 5% yield and one with a 0% yield, it’s clear that one of these selections gets you out of the starting blocks with a decided advantage.

The Dow Fell for 16 Years

If you still are not convinced of the value of my dividend approach, take careful note of the following: In 1965 the Dow closed the year at 969.26. In 1981, 16 years later, the Dow closed at 875.00. The Dow lost 10% over a period that for most Americans equates to half a working lifetime or all of a retirement. Without dividends, the game was over.

Invest based on what you do know rather than on what you are guessing about the future. None of us knows what the future holds. I can give you guidelines, and I can help you construct a portfolio that will absolutely make you a winner regardless of what happens, but I cannot tell you what the headlines will be in tomorrow’s newspaper. Bet on the cards you hold, not on drawing to an inside straight.