Young's World Money Forecast

Since 1978 With a 32 Year Vacation

What Is Gold Telling Investors? And the Dow 30?

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Take a good look at my chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow 30) and the price of gold. You can see gold hitting new highs at $3,342/troy ounce, while the DJIA Index has fallen to 39,669 points, or a drop of about 11.9% since peaking on December 4, 2024.  Gold is in a secular bull market, and it will remain in a secular bull market until the world’s central banks stop printing excessive amounts of money and governments stop issuing excessive amounts of debt. One indicator of prospective returns in gold is the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the price of gold. When the ratio is falling, gold is outperforming the Dow. Over the last 124 years, as portrayed in the … [Read More...]

The Power of Gold

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As the purchasing power of the American dollar has declined steadily since gold convertibility ended in 1971, the purchasing power of an ounce of gold is strong. The spot price of gold closed at an all-time high of $2,989 yesterday and crossed over $3,000 an ounce in trading today.  The purchasing power of gold is also near record highs, though it hasn't quite exceeded its peak during the hyperinflation of the 1980s.  Since 1913, the year the Federal Reserve was created, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen by 96%. The purchasing power of a single ounce of gold over that same time period has more than doubled. That is no coincidence. Gold is a store of value—a wealth … [Read More...]

Good as Gold: Will Ron Paul Audit the Fed?

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The price of gold has reached new highs. In 2017 I wrote to subscribers: Since 1913, the year the Federal Reserve was created, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen 96%. The purchasing power of a single ounce of gold over that same time period has more than doubled. That is no coincidence. Gold is a store of value—a wealth preservation vehicle. Gold won’t make you rich, but it also won’t make you poor. Gold is a currency. It can’t go bankrupt, lose its value because of poor management, accounting fraud, world war, or hyper-inflation. Investors who truly understand gold recognize that gold should be counted in ounces, not in dollars. Because while the dollar value of gold may … [Read More...]

Over Three Decades of Consistency

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Riding the yield curve and compounding decades of dividends. Practicing the faith of Ben Graham's margin of safety, and honoring the Prudent Man Rule. I still write daily. You'll find me on our family websites, so don't miss out. www.youngsworldmoneyforecast.com www.youngresearch.com www.richardcyoung.com www.yoursurvivalguy.com … [Read More...]

The Story of Roger Babson and the Great Depression

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After successfully predicting the crash that led to the Great Depression, Roger Babson was vilified as though he were its cause. At Doug Casey's International Man, Jeff Thomas explains the history of Roger Babson, founder of Babson College, which I attended. "[A] crash is coming, and it may be terrific. …. The vicious circle will get in full swing and the result will be a serious business depression. There may be a stampede for selling which will exceed anything that the Stock Exchange has ever witnessed. Wise are those investors who now get out of debt." The above words could easily have been stated by me or another of the (very) few others who currently predict the coming of crashes in … [Read More...]

MY PAYDAY INDICATOR: Are You Getting Paid to Invest?

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  UPDATE 10.14.24: In September, the Federal Reserve did cut rates by 50bps and signaled another 50bps in cuts by the end of 2024. I've updated my Payday Indicator chart below so you can see the diminishing yield investors can expect on their money.  Originally posted August 2, 2024. The market believes the Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates in September and that the Fed could cut them by 75 basis points by the end of the year. Of course, this analysis comes after the market completely misjudged the Fed's intentions about cuts in December 2023. So, take all predictions with more than a grain of salt. But comments from Jerome Powell and other Fed officials indicate they may be … [Read More...]

What the Iran Situation Means for Gold

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UPDATE 8.22.24: Tensions are once again high in the Middle East, with a war between Israel and Hamas underway and the prospect of Iran and its allies taking a more active role against Israel. Iran has promised strikes against Israel in retaliation for Israel's killing of Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas official, on Iranian soil. Rather than strike back right away, Iranian leaders suggest strikes will come at a time of their choosing. With the Middle East ready to boil over and many other parts of the globe in turmoil, is it any wonder gold is hitting all-time highs? Take a look at my chart below. Geopolitical fear is only one component of gold's rise. As you can see in the chart below, … [Read More...]

The Reason the Fed Keeps Interest Rates Low

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At the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity, former congressman and presidential candidate Dr. Ron Paul explains that the "desire to monetize the federal debt is one reason, if not the main reason, why the central bank keeps interest rates low." He writes: Politicians favor an “easy money” policy because it creates an (illusionary) economic boom. The Fed-created boom helps the politicians remain in office. A reason politicians favor low interest rates is they facilitate government spending and debt, thus enabling politicians to aid powerful special interests via government spending. The desire to monetize the federal debt is one reason, if not the main reason, why the central bank … [Read More...]

Are the Goods Moving?

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Long-time readers are familiar with Young Research's Moving the Goods Index, a market-cap-weighted stock index made up of nonairline transportation companies. If I had to choose only one economic indicator to use, this would be it. Transportation companies lead the business cycle. The theory is that you have to move the goods before you sell them. If the index is reaching new highs, economic growth is likely improving. And if the index is dropping to new lows, economic growth is likely slowing. For the last couple of years, since the end of the major Covid shutdowns, the index has been consolidating, with slightly higher highs and slightly higher lows. Keep your eye on my Moving the Goods … [Read More...]

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Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd.

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