Young's World Money Forecast

Since 1978 With a 32 Year Vacation

Gold’s 50-Year Price Explosion

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Originally posted on July 27, 2020. Part I I was there from the start.  In early August 1971, I had just joined internationally focused research and trading firm Model Roland & Co. On 15 August 1971, President Nixon shocked the world by announcing that the U. S. would no longer officially trade dollars for gold. At that time, gold’s fixed price was $35/oz. By 1980, gold would hit an astronomical $800/oz. OK then, back to Model and the firm’s wonderful head partner Leo Model. From my first day onboard at Model, I started covering a bevy of major Boston institutional accounts.  I was 30 years old, and I would become friends with analysts, portfolio managers and traders at Wellington … [Read More...]

65 Years of Compounding

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The article below was written about me way back in 1991. Nearly four decades later, I still advise real investors on compound interest, the Prudent Man Rule, and Ben Graham's Margin of Safety. I do not speculate or invest on stock stories--never have. I invest on simple mathematics. All you need is time and a compound interest table.  … [Read More...]

Ben Graham: Margin of Safety

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In 2001, I wrote about Ben Graham and his Margin of Safety: Creating Wealth Through the Power of Compound Growth Ben Graham, 1894-1976... Warren Buffett has referred to Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor as "by far the best book on investing ever written." John Train, a former super Forbes columnist, wrote, "Graham ranks as this century's (and perhaps history's) most important thinker on applied portfolio investment." In the preface to Graham's fourth revised edition printed in 1973, W.B. wrote, "It is rare that the founder of a discipline does not find his work eclipsed in rather short order by successors. But over forty years after publication of the book (first written in … [Read More...]

My Top 10 Fund Investments

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My top fund investments include three fixed income-centric funds, two gold funds, two dividend-centric equity funds, two inflation hedge energy funds, and one dividend-centric consumer equity fund for a total of ten major positions in all. My fund volatility in the normal year approaches zero. 100% of my investing is based on the Prudent Man Rule and Ben Graham’s Margin of Safety. I do not speculate with the money I have worked a lifetime to earn, and I never have. I have never taken what most investors refer to as a significant loss. In fact, I can rightfully be referred to as a pretty boring investor. … [Read More...]

The Establishment of the Prudent Man Rule

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The Prudent Man Rule is based on common law stemming from the 1830 Massachusetts court formulation Harvard College v. Amory. The Prudent Man Rule directs trustees “to observe how men of prudence, discretion and intelligence manage their own affairs, not in regard to speculation, but in regard to the permanent disposition of their funds, considering the probable income, as well as the probable safety of the capital invested.” Since I started our family investment management firm in 1989, I have operated under the assumption that the Prudent Man Rule to this day carries as much weight as it did in 1830. Common sense and prudence just don’t go out of style—ever. … [Read More...]

Bessent: The Fed Must Change Course, but No Mention of Gold

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On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal the dangers of the expanding responsibilities and power of the Federal Reserve. He noted the Fed's expanded powers granted in the Dodd-Frank Act, and that fifteen years afterward, the results of granting the central bank those extra powers have been disappointing. He wrote: Regulatory overreach compounds the problem. The Dodd-Frank Act dramatically enlarged the Fed’s supervisory footprint, transforming it into the dominant regulator of U.S. finance. Fifteen years on, the results are disappointing. The 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank illustrates the dangers of combining supervision and monetary … [Read More...]

Richard Young Reports: 50+ Years with Fidelity and Wellington

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I started in the institutional research and trading investment business at Model Roland & Co. on Federal St. in Boston in August 1971. Just up the street from Model were Fidelity Investments, and Wellington Management, both of whom I called on from my very first hours on the job. Over five decades ago, Ned Johnson, aka “Mister Johnson,” ran the show at Fidelity. At Wellington, Jack Bogle, “Mr. Mutual Fund,” had not yet left Wellington to start Vanguard.    My focus in the initial going was international research and trading, and remains so today all these decades later.  I still consider Fidelity and Wellington the industry leaders. Both firms feature great cultures, industry-leading … [Read More...]

Would the Pat Buchanan Plan Work Today?

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In July 2014, I outlined for readers a plan by Pat Buchanan to end the corporate income tax. Pat’s plan, or one like it, could revolutionize the American economy. I wrote: Pat Buchanan suggests abolishing the corporate income tax and replacing it with a revenue-neutral 10% tariff on imports. Pat maintains that imports kill U.S. jobs and subtract from GDP. What, laments Pat, has our political class done to our once self-sufficient American Republic? Pat’s idea would give a huge boost to our economy. A flat 10% tax on corporate profits, personal income, and retail sales might face less severe headwinds in passing muster in Congress. Either concept would prove a valued tonic that all … [Read More...]

The Singularity Is Nearer: Ray Kurzweil

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Ray Kurzweil has been a leading developer of artificial intelligence for 61 years, longer than any other living human. I am reading his most recent book, The Singularity is Nearer: When We Merge with AI. The implications of artificial intelligence are immense, and Kurzweil is viewing the technology from the forefront in his position as Principal Researcher and AI Visionary at Google. The book's website explains: The world’s most renowned oracle of technological change shows how human minds will merge with AI within the next two decades and what this momentous transformation will mean for us all. One of the greatest inventors of our time, futurist Ray Kurzweil published his … [Read More...]

What Is Gold Telling Investors? And the Dow 30?

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Take a good look at my chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow 30) and the price of gold. You can see gold hitting new highs at $3,342/troy ounce, while the DJIA Index has fallen to 39,669 points, or a drop of about 11.9% since peaking on December 4, 2024.  Gold is in a secular bull market, and it will remain in a secular bull market until the world’s central banks stop printing excessive amounts of money and governments stop issuing excessive amounts of debt. One indicator of prospective returns in gold is the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the price of gold. When the ratio is falling, gold is outperforming the Dow. Over the last 124 years, as portrayed in the … [Read More...]

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Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd.

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Disclaimer:

The information contained here is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended nor should it be considered investment advice or a recommendation of securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It is possible to lose money by investing. You should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before investing.